Since 2022, the important textile raw materials chemical fiber and cotton have risen to varying degrees, and the cost side of the textile industry has been under pressure. Due to the sluggish demand and the industry's own characteristics, it is difficult to transfer the cost to the terminal consumption, and the profits of the intermediate industry chain have been threatened, and the entire industry has experienced a "peak season". It is not prosperous, and the off-season is even weaker”. At present, there is a weakening trend in cost-side support, and the development of supply and demand ends in the second half of the year is expected to become the key to affecting market changes.
In 2021, the total value of China's import and export of goods will exceed US$6 trillion, an increase of 30%, and the scale of foreign trade exports and imports will both hit record highs. The textile industry is in it and has made important contributions. my country's textile and apparel exports in the whole year are 315.5 billion US dollars, and it will continue to grow steadily on a relatively high trade base in 2021, reaching a record high, fully demonstrating the industry's independent and controllable entire industry chain. Efficient and stable international competitive advantage. Entering 2022, the prices of many international bulk commodities have risen significantly, the textile and garment industry is under pressure on the cost side, the superimposed demand is sluggish, the cost is difficult to transmit to the terminal consumption, the profits of the intermediate industry chain are threatened, and the entire industry has experienced "the peak season is not prosperous, and the off-season is even weaker. "Scenes.
I. Summary of industry development characteristics in the first half of the year
1. Cotton prices are as high as chemical fiber prices, and the textile industry has strong cost support
In the first half of 2022, affected by the unstable international situation and other factors, the crude oil price of the "King of Commodities" has risen significantly, and the price of its downstream chemical fiber raw materials has risen significantly along with the crude oil price. The correlation coefficient between ethylene glycol and crude oil is much lower than the previous two. remain stable. According to the statistics of Zhuochuang Information, as of June 30, 2022, the prices of PX and PTA in the first half of the year have increased by 55.9% and 36.7% respectively compared with the beginning of the year. The price of polyester filament, its main downstream product, has increased by about 20%, and the rest of the products have also increased. with varying degrees of rise. In terms of cotton spinning, the domestic cotton price is affected by the international cotton price, and has continued to run at a high level since the fourth quarter of 2021, and is still at a relatively high level in history.
The price changes of chemical fiber raw materials and chemical fiber products in the first half of the year are divided into two stages: the first stage is from the beginning of the year to early June, and the chemical fiber industry chain has an obvious upward trend at this stage. The reason is that the price of crude oil is strong, the cost support is relatively strong, and the commodity market The rally is clear. The second stage is after June 10. The price of WTI crude oil gradually fell from US$120/barrel, the support at the cost side weakened, and the downstream chemical fiber raw materials and products entered a downward channel. Superimposed the influence of low demand in traditional off-season and the Fed's interest rate hike, etc., it gradually got out of the high level, but the price of PX was separated from the cost logic due to the supply reduction, and the price rose. It shows that the changes in cotton prices are similar to those of chemical fiber prices. The first stage continues to run at a high trend in the fourth quarter of 2021, and the second stage drops significantly. The increase in the prices of chemical fiber raw materials, products and cotton has a certain impact on the downstream textile prices. According to this situation, it can be seen that the textile price index is similar to the change trend of raw materials. On the whole, in the first half of 2022, due to the high prices of crude oil and resources, many textile raw materials are in the logic of cost-led prices, the impact of fundamentals on the prices of textile raw materials is weakened, and the prices of textile raw materials follow cost changes.
2. Poor demand restricts terminal demand, and various factors gradually improve
Since the beginning of this year, affected by various factors, the work mobility of residents has decreased, the income of some residents has decreased, concerns about living expenses have increased, and the impact of the "home office" model has been superimposed, and the consumption of clothing upgrades has been restrained to a certain extent. There is a phenomenon of "potato economy" in economic development, that is, people's spending is more cautious, mainly for the consumption of "potatoes" and other basic daily necessities, which has a certain adverse effect on the consumption of non-essential items such as clothing. In the first quarter of 2022 The retail value of textiles and apparel is similar to the trend in the first quarter of 2021, and will gradually approach the normal level in the same period of previous years.
On the whole, the total retail sales of textiles and apparel in the first half of 2022 is generally lower than the same period of previous years. On the one hand, the retail value of textiles in the same period last year was relatively high, which made the base higher. On the other hand, due to factors such as international turmoil and domestic epidemic prevention, Residents tend to save and reduce consumption of non-essential items such as clothing and textiles. After April, as emergencies eased, offline consumption of residents gradually recovered, driving demand for clothing and other items to gradually improve.
3. "High cost" and "low demand" are attacked on both sides, and the cost transmission is not smooth
In this term, the rising cost will be gradually transmitted downward through the industrial chain, thus ensuring the profits of each link. However, in the case of poor demand, the market price of terminal products may fall into the difficult predicament of "there is no market". In order to ensure smooth sales, terminal consumer merchants are bound to tend to stabilize prices or sell at reduced prices to ensure the income of terminal sales; Secondly, for the textile industry, the proportion of raw materials in terminal sales is less than 20%, and the rising cost of raw materials is difficult to smoothly transfer to terminal clothing and textile sales. Therefore, the production of intermediate products must bear high costs. As can be seen from Figure 6, compared with the downstream textile industry, the profit of the chemical fiber industry chain in the middle position has fallen more sharply, and it bears more pressure from the cost side. Taking the production of PTA as an example, its processing fee is shown in Figure 7. It can be seen from the figure that in the first half of this year, the processing fee of PTA was lower than the average most of the time, and even a rare negative value. According to the statistics of Zhuochuang Information, PTA enterprises are in a state of loss when the processing fee is less than 600 yuan/ton. Therefore, the PTA industry will lose money most of the time in the first half of 2022.
In order to alleviate the pressure of loss, most enterprises choose to reduce the operating rate. From March to April, the operating rate of polyester and downstream textile industries has dropped significantly. It has improved since May, but it is still relatively low in history.
4. The international demand is stable, and my country's textile and apparel exports have increased year-on-year
From the perspective of textile exports, in the first half of 2022, January, March, May, and June all achieved positive year-on-year growth. Under the circumstance of "Waterloo" in domestic demand, my country's textile exports are relatively optimistic. On the one hand, my country's textile exports account for a large share of the world. In 2021, my country's textile exports will account for about 43% of the world. International demand is relatively stable. Although there are adverse effects such as unstable geopolitical situation and frequent epidemics, the overall situation is controllable and the impact on textile and apparel demand is limited. On the other hand, the production of my country's textile and garment industry has a certain degree of resilience. In the second quarter, work and production have been actively resumed, ensuring the supply of exports. In addition, the high prices of international bulk commodities and the devaluation of the RMB also have a certain effect on the export of textiles and clothing. The relative stability of international demand has made up for the impact of sluggish domestic demand to a certain extent, and eased the supply and demand contradiction in the chemical fiber-textile industry chain.
2. Forecast for the second half of 2022: The main factors affecting prices are expected to return to the supply and demand side
From the full text, in the first half of 2022, the textile and apparel industry is in a situation of high costs, declining supply, and low domestic demand. The international demand is relatively stable, and the overall export has achieved positive year-on-year growth, which has certain support for the textile and apparel industry. Various factors have gradually improved since April, but there is still some distance between the data and the historical reasonable range. In the second half of the year, the pressure on the cost side has weakened, and the impact of rising costs on the chemical fiber-textile industry chain will be weakened. The main factors affecting prices are expected to return to the supply and demand side, of which demand is the key factor. With the arrival of "Golden Nine Silver Ten", the supporting role of the demand side for the market will be enhanced.
From an economic point of view, textiles and clothing are typical non-essential goods, and residents' willingness to consume has a significant impact on the demand for textiles and clothing and their upstream products. At the end of June, the scale of household deposits in my country was 112.8 trillion yuan, an increase of 10.3 trillion yuan from the beginning of the year and an increase of 2.9 trillion yuan year-on-year. According to the "2022 Second Quarter Urban Saver Survey Report" recently released by the central bank, 58.3% of residents tended to "save more" in the second quarter, an increase of 3.6 percentage points from the previous quarter. This shows that residents are more inclined to save rather than consume, which can also be reflected from the side. Under the influence of residents' consumption tendency, it is difficult for the textile and garment industry to reproduce high growth in the second half of the year, but with the arrival of the peak consumption season, the industry demand will be repaired to a certain extent.